Women Hold the Key to the 2004 Elections

October 1, 2004

by Casey Shevin, NOW Government Relations Intern

Recent media coverage has focused on the important role that the gender gap will play in the upcoming election. According to the Washington Post, in the 2000 election Gore led Bush by 11 points among female voters, while Bush led Gore by 11 points among male voters. The Democratic Party has traditionally relied on the votes of women, and the Kerry campaign is aware that without the support of women the White House is sure to land in the hands of George Bush once again.

The media has recently focused on poll results that show support for Kerry slipping among women; yet many experts on the gender gap are questioning the accuracy of these polls. According to Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, women are more likely than men to support Kerry. Within the women's vote, single women heavily favor Kerry while married women lean towards Bush, as they did in 2000. Of course, if the polls are over-sampling Republicans, they are also over-sampling female Republicans, and 90 percent of Republicans are said to be favoring Bush.

In the Sept. 21 Zogby Interactive poll, there is a marked difference between married and single women voters, with the latter group supporting Kerry/Edwards by a two to one margin and the married women favoring Bush/Cheney by 11 points (52% to 41 percent) just as they favored Bush over Gore in 2000.

Zogby's polls are reported in the Wall Street Journal and do provide gender data with their state polls, according to an article in the current Ms. Magazine.

Ms. publisher and former NOW President Ellie Smeal, herself an expert on gender gap analysis, emphasizes that it is with the women, young people and Independents that Kerry is leading. "The gender gap in every key state is the decisive difference," Smeal says. "So beware of nationwide polls—look principally at statewide battleground polls—and watch the gender gap."

According to the U.S. Department of State and other sources, during the 2000 presidential election, 21 million unmarried women did not vote, and during the 2002 mid-term elections, 56 percent of married women voted for Republican Party candidates, compared to 39 percent of unmarried women voting Republican. In 2004, men have given Bush a job approval rating that is seven points higher than women have given him. Unmarried women could easily decide this election.