Women Voters Maintain Gender Gap in 2004 Elections

November 12, 2004

by Lisa Bennett, Communications Director

Women demonstrated their strong opinions and voting patterns once again in the 2004 elections. At a Nov. 9 press conference, NOW, the Feminist Majority, the National Council of Women's Organizations and pollster Celinda Lake released new data proving that the gender gap — the difference between the way women and men vote on a particular candidate — is alive and well in the U.S.

"The gender gap is evident regardless of age, race or marital status -- that did not surprise us," said NOW President Kim Gandy. "What is remarkable is the level of commitment to equality across all groups of women, even Republican women." [see "Not Enough Talk About Equality" below]

The survey, commissioned by Votes for Women 2004, a project of the Communications Consortium Media Center, also de-bunked the popular myth that "moral values" drove the presidential election. Women's opinions on a number of issues not addressed by the mainstream media polls — such as domestic violence and women's equality under the law — are finally seeing the light of day thanks to this report.

In compiling the report, Lake's public opinion firm, Lake Snell Perry & Associates, looked at: the actual election results, exit polls conducted by the media, and data from its own survey of voters conducted Nov.1-2.

Inside the Gender Gap

Between women and men overall, a seven point difference exists in their voting — 51 percent of women voted for John Kerry, while 44 percent of men favored the Democratic candidate. Conversely, men preferred George W. Bush by 55 to 48 percent over women.

The gender gap did, in fact, decline from its 10 point spread in 2000 for Al Gore. Women's leaders speculate that the Bush campaign's intense focus on security, and their active courting of women voters, drew additional support to the Republican ticket. However, the research shows that, for women, security is more than averting terrorist attacks:

"We need to broaden the dialogue about security," said Lake. Issues such as preventing violence against women, equal pay, health care and social security are all of vital interest to women and progressive voters.

The shift of a small percentage of women's votes to Bush occurred most notably among white women, married women and older women. Still, within these groups, women demonstrated less support for Bush than their male counterparts.

Women of color overwhelmingly preferred Kerry, voting 75 percent in his favor. Sixty-two percent of unmarried women voted for Kerry and 56 percent of young women (age 18-29) also voted Democratic.

Feminist Majority President Eleanor Smeal noted how important the women's vote really is in winning electoral votes and determining the final outcome-in nine of the 20 states where Kerry prevailed, he won because of the gender gap.

Did "Moral Values" Really Matter?

The media have been quick to jump on the "moral values" bandwagon, declaring it the main reason for Bush's victory. They cite as evidence the media's own exit polls, particularly a CNN poll showing that 22 percent of voters named moral values as their most important issue, the highest percentage given for any individual issue. But CNN only offered the voter a narrow list of issues. In the Celinda Lake poll, when responders were offered a longer menu of options from which to select the #1 issue that carried their vote, "moral values" declined to only 10 percent.

But what are moral values? In its analysis of the election results, the media have defined moral values as an opposition to abortion and same sex marriage and support for Bush's brand of born-again religion. But many people cite opposition to hunger, poverty, and the war in Iraq as "moral" values. Like the notion of security, Gandy and other feminist leaders want to broaden the recognition of moral values beyond the narrow Bush-world definition.

A more obvious point is the fact that, even in the narrow CNN poll, 78 percent of the voters polled did not pick moral values as their key issue.

"We must not allow the right wing and the media to blame same sex couples and Roe v. Wade for John Kerry's defeat," says Gandy. "A large majority of people in the U.S. support reproductive choice and their acceptance of lesbian and gay rights has grown dramatically in the past several years."

In the Votes for Women 2004 exit poll, voters were offered a more complete list of issues to choose from-including Social Security, the federal deficit and veteran's issues — and this time moral values fell to fourth on the list with only 10 percent, not 23 percent. Jobs/the economy was number one in this poll, with 23 percent of voters naming it as their top issue. Homeland security and terrorism followed with 19 percent.

"To call this the moral values election is greatly exaggerated," said Lake. "You could say it was the terrorism or economy election."

Women: Not Enough Talk About Equality

Perhaps the most enlightening portion of the Votes for Women poll covers ground not addressed anywhere else. Voters were asked about their opinions on equality for women and what issues they felt were neglected during the extended campaign.

Sixty-one percent of women voters felt that "women's equality under the law" was a top issue that candidates did not talk about enough. Second was "equal pay for women," with 60 percent; third was "prevention of violence against women," with 58 percent; and fourth was "appointing women to leadership positions in the administration," with 54 percent. Over a third thought that abortion rights did not receive enough attention during the campaign.

The belief that issues of women's equality were shortchanged during the 2004 campaign was shared across the board, among younger and older women, married and unmarried, and Democratic, Republican and Independent women.

Women expressed that these issues should be high priorities in the next administration. Health care, education and jobs were at the top of their list, with issues of equality following closely behind.

A majority of voters, 55 percent, agreed that if U.S. women had equal rights under the law it would strengthen their economic well-being. The gender gap asserted itself here, with 64 percent of women and 43 percent of men making the connection. In fact, a near majority of Republican women, 48 percent, acknowledge a connection between equal rights and economic stability for women.

The Bottom Line

Reporters at the Nov. 9 press conference wanted to know what feminists thought about why Kerry did not win and how women's rights advocates might turn things around for the future.

The speakers acknowledged that women's rights issues played little part in the campaign until the final moments. The Kerry campaign's conviction that the women's vote would hold fast to the Democratic party surely contributed to his defeat.

"It was both logical and reasonable to assume that women would support Kerry," said Gandy, "because his record and positions on our issues was excellent. But Bush ran a campaign that said he supported women. The Bush campaign, through rhetoric not actions, worked the gender gap."

How did Bush move women's votes to his side? The theme of security in a time of war appears to be the major winner — the "fear gap" clearly played to Bush's advantage. Lake suggested that is Kerry has succeeded in changing the issue to the economy in the closing weeks, the results might have turned out differently.

Looking forward, NOW has made a commitment to monitor the Bush administration more closely than ever. Gandy's advice to the Democrats is to make sure that women are at the table as they craft their messages and strategies during the next four years.

In the meantime, the next major battle will be Bush's first Supreme Court nominee, and then his second, and then possibly his third and fourth nominees. Feminists and other progressives know how much is at stake — we must not let the right wing dictate the terms of this debate.

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